Kalshi · Phase 1.5

Shadow Mission Control

Read-only experiment telemetry. Paper promotion stays locked until the evidence gate is met.

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Readiness runway

Promotion and calibration use one canonical outcome per settled ticker. Simulated fills do not advance them.

Model quality

Settled evidence, calibration, confidence, and readiness.

Data freshness

Latest durable evidence and scanner heartbeat.

Today’s activity

UTC activity from the current experiment.

Hypothetical Shadow P&L

Simulated only · future Paper P&L is separate.

LOCKED
No broker, wallet, or live order path is enabled.

Top 10 opportunities

Highest observed net edge, not an execution queue.

Sorted by net edge
CityContractEst. prob.Market prob.Raw edgeNet edgeConfidenceDecisionTimestamp

Recent settlements

Last 10 settled shadow candidates.

City / ContractSideEst.MarketResultImmediatePassiveNet edgeConf.

Rolling performance

Hypothetical shadow results by settled-candidate window.

WindowRecordWin rateNet P&L

Canonical market audit

One forecast outcome per ticker; execution lanes remain separate.

TickerCity/dateRowsSnapshotsImmediatePassiveCanonical

Canonical ROI analysis

Unique-market groups; immediate executable and passive simulation are shown separately.

Calibration

Unique canonical outcomes · YES probability versus realized YES rate.

EstimatedActual

Learning

Only populated after settled observations.

Readiness checklist

The actual promotion gates.

Mission progress

Daily experiment trajectory.